Where is the economy heading?

One person's birds eye views is another person's ground floor particularly in terms of where is the economy heading?

I am an eternal optimist.  I am quite aware of how fragile the economy is.  Unemployment continues to surge.  Are we still on the way down or are we now feeling the large tremors from the initial shock?  I see restaurants packed and others closed.  I read that rents are stabilizing in NYC but are they?  I do wonder ( and worry ) about people in my age bracket who have lost their jobs and their jobs are never going to come back, they have vanished.  They have kids going off to college and now they can't afford the mortgage or their life.  What will happen to them?  Younger people will be able to take a step back and reassess their careers and lives.  Most people my age have a harder time doing that.

I was speaking to a guy who gives our Vespas the tune up every year to return to the road.  The nicest guy.  His shop is in Brooklyn.  Today, he told me he is moving to Vermont.  He believes the unemployment will hit 11% in the near future. So, he is leaving NYC. He has family there and is young enough to make the move and change his life.  He is concerned about the economy.  He wonders if the US will ever be able to rebound when we are becoming a country that won't be manufacturing products to export.  That is what his parents world was about and we are still living off of that but it has ceased to exist.

Where I sit, I believe that we will come back and be stronger than ever.  We will create new industries, new economies, new ways of life that are energy efficient, think about saving vs out spending our neighbor, giving back and caring more, changing the way we educate our children, etc.  I could go on and on.  I see the downfall in the economy as an opportunity to change for the better.  That is how I think. 

But after getting off the phone with our bike guy, it gives me pause and ability to look through a brand new set of eyes.  Sorry to see him go.  But, I hope that the change for him is a great one and that with him making a move to Vermont, he will create new economies for that state that he didn't even know he would or could.