Will This Time Be Different?

Here we are again, watching a community, family, and friends destroyed by a random act of violence by an unhinged person who was able to walk into a store and buy a gun that can kill a lot of people quickly.  I don’t understand why we all don’t want to stop this.  That it seems to be ok that 33,000 gun deaths are year is a price we seem willing to pay.  The trail of people who have known these victims as friends or were family that has been left to grieve continues to grow.

Each time we become numb to the media circus around these tragedies.  I hope I never had to witness one in the media again but they keep coming.  Will this time be different?

I am extremely impressed with the survivors of the Florida shootings this past week who have quickly galvanized around this by shouting out no more.  They are taking to the streets, they are taking it straight to the Government with speeches and social media.  These people get how to play the media game and they are using social media as a foundation to push for change.  Many of these kids are also almost if not already at voting age.  They have the ability to round up their peers across this country to say we are not going to let this happen again, we are going to call out the corruption of gun lobbyists in Government, we are going to get behind new politicians who want to lead the next generation with new laws, fewer pay-offs and people who actually represent their constituencies vs themselves.  They are already putting together a march on March 24th in Washington.  If this galvanizes all high school students and more around one issue, that will cut across party lines, that will be a sight to behold.

I just feel that among these young adults who can run circles around everyone on social media, the articles that are being written, the conversations that seem to be taking place, and where we have got to in Government, that perhaps, just perhaps, this time will be different.

Comments (Archived):

  1. JLM

    .You appear to be using 2013-14 timeframe numbers which show a total of 33,594 total gun deaths and which include suicides. Gun deaths, from all causes and with all weapons, have been steadily declining for the last 20 years as our population continues to grow. There was a slight uptick in 2015 and 2016, but the trend is clear.Of this total, 21,386 are suicides while 11,008 are homicides. Clearly, suicide is much more deadly than murder. [These are Wikipedia quality numbers and are not as good as the FBI numbers.]Of the homicides, 14 in that year died from what are being called “mass shootings.” On average, over the last decade, we have had fewer than 100 deaths from mass shootings annually.The vast majority of the gun murders were committed using handguns. More than half of the murders were black-on-black crime. The black-on-black crime is an urban phenomenon nobody wants to talk about.Take out Chicago, LA, NYC, Detroit and a few others and the American statistics are dramatically different. All of these cities, of course, have very strict gun laws.The FBI keeps good statistics on murders. In 2016, there were a total of 15,070 murders which included 11,004 which involved firearms of any type.Handguns were involved in 7,105 while rifles (of which assault rifles would be a part) were involved in 374 murders. Obviously, the big problem is handguns by a huge margin.Knives were involved in 1,604 murders – 4X that of rifles including assault rifles. Motor vehicle fatalities in 2016 were 37,461.There were 249MM registered vehicles in the US in 2016 and, it is estimated, 300MM guns in the US.You can check the FBI data here: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-i…The point is this — we need to prevent any gun from coming into the hands of people who have any propensity to use it to kill another human being.In the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban, there was a requirement to create a nationwide DB of persons who were not to own guns. Some states, like Texas, made theirs. Others, like California, did not. The ACLU, the Dems, the liberal states screamed bloody murder and the national DB never materialized.Had this DB been in place, the vast majority of mass shooters would have been netted.Texas uses its DB and if you are a criminal, involved in domestic abuse, a mentally challenged person, have been prescribed certain drugs, and a host of other things — NO GUNS. All time high in gun ownership Texas. All time low in murder rate.It is time to make that DB. [BTW, the NRA has been in favor of this initiative for decades.]JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

    1. walker

      Let’s say that some of the gun control initiatives being proposed by the students are not effective, so what? They are smart and will figure it out. We (meaning our generation) had our chance and our way has yielded results that many (most?) people and students deem unacceptable. It’s their chance and nothing anyone is proposing seems even remotely likely to cause harm unless you consider not being able to buy an AR15 at age 18 or a bumpstock “harm” and would at a minimum tilt the cultural norm away from the absolutist interpretation of the 2nd amendment. Lets see what happens. Cordially, musings of a smallish bland colored car.

      1. JLM

        .Didn’t say I had any problem with any initiative, but we did sort of solve the problem back in 1994. We just failed to follow through with what we agreed to do. Well, some states didn’t follow through.I have no problem with raising the age of driving, drinking, and gun ownership to 24 with an exception for veterans. If you’re old enough to die for your country, you ought to be able to drink a beer.I have no problem with gun registration though I don’t see what that gets us.I have no problem with mandatory gun training including safety, marksmanship. BTW, the best training in the world comes from the NRA and the military.I have no problem with trainers identifying specific owners and saying, “Hey, this person looks a little squirrelly.”I have no problem with a Big Data approach wherein someone who buys a lot of guns and ammo is identified for a chat with a local detective. Hell, Amazon can propose stuff when I just look at it on line. Surely, we can harness Big Data to just ID problems before they begin.I would also consider changing the Second Amendment. We have a mechanism which provides for the amendment of the Constitution. We have had 33 proposed amendments and we have ratified 27 of them. This, of course, would require actual leadership and negotiation amongst the parties.If one says the Second Amendment is archaic, then you have to propose an alternative. Everybody talks about it, but nobody does anything about it.I am all in favor of real gun regulation which starts with identifying those who should never own a gun and enforcing that list. Again, the NRA has come out in favor of this approach.I am in favor of action, not words. Action.Get rid of the smallish bland colored car. Please.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

        1. walker

          I mean this sincerely, do you not see that you are alienating people who agree with you and who would otherwise be receptive to you and who might kind of dig your menschy-big-red-car-charisma-no BS-rational- fact-based view of reality if you were not so unreceptive to what is going on with them? You remind me of Dr. Laura ( someone I imagine you admire). (Think about this – why tell me to “Get rid of the smallish bland colored car. Please.” – how about suggesting to me that I open my mind to big red or how about asking me why I like my small car – world of difference). I love you but I do not like you – think about that. Please.

          1. SFG

            Jeff is being his authentic self. He’s a smart guy. Agree or disagree, I take in his points with respect and move on with my life. Why should he not be himself in order to appease whatever you deem proper internet communications? And I mean this sincerely : )

  2. awaldstein

    I think possibly.I also think we need to applaud each step in the right direction.Read somewhere that their was a ruling somewhere that the 2nd amendment does not apply to weapons of war. That has real possibilities to me and strikes of sanity.

    1. LE

      You are referring to this:https://www.nbcnews.com/new…That actually sounds ripe [1]. That’s an actual term relating to cases for the Supreme Court. In fact there was dissent on that federal appeals court in that ruling. For the record I don’t own any guns and don’t plan to own any guns. But the truth is that is a weak argument and in the end could do more harm to the cause than good.I think in order to win an argument like this you have to first find a weakness in it. So I will do that by stating the obvious that there are many things that are used in war (or as weapons of war) that are not banned and that nobody thinks should be banned. That is almost certainly how the Supreme Court would see it and part of the argument to overturn that ruling. Will bet $1000 if this case goes to higher court (Supreme) that is the way it will go.My guess is that the majority of people that use these weapons don’t feel they need them for self defense or anything close. To me, and maybe I am wrong, they are for entertainment value and enjoyment (firing at the range or on a ranch, whatever). In a way then this is no different than me accepting that I can’t drive my car which can go close to 200mph on a highway ‘for enjoyment’. I have to accept that fact and do accept that even though I have a better car and I’d like to think I am a more skilled driver than others I still have to follow rules intended for the lowest common denominator (like the 18 year old driving the old Toyota Corolla).[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wi

  3. Bridget Goodbody

    I wonder when the NRA will put its media money with its historic mission: i.e. preparing civilians who might end up in the military and standing up for gun safety. The organization has been hijacked by alt right media for so long that its hard to remember that it wasn’t always.

    1. JLM

      .The NRA has not been focused on preparing youth for the military since the end of the 1800s. It was founded in 1871 by a couple of Union officers who decried the marksmanship of Union soldiers in the Civil War. It was perceived as a very northern thing as the Southerners were hunters.Ronald Reagan, in 1980, was the first Presidential candidate ever endorsed by the NRA. The NRA’s political involvement is a fairly recent undertaking and is more myth than reality.The NRA has only 5MM dues paying members (of which I think less than half are either loyal members or have been members for more than 10 years) and gets $0 from the Federal government. It is the pre-eminent civilian marksmanship and gun safety teaching entity in the world.Take as an example, NPR – as a loose proxy for leftward leaning entities and one which constantly opposes the NRA. NPR has 27MM listeners, 900+ radio stations and gets $445MM per year from the Feds.The political power of the NRA as a contributor is pure myth. In 2016, they contributed a total of $1,071,100 with almost all of it going to PACs and not to individual candidates. Only $64,700 went to individuals.The NRA, of which I am a member in the sense I pay my dues and nothing more, has been a proponent of the creation of the database which was to have been prepared as part of the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban. Texas did it. California did not. The ACLU, Dems, liberal states screamed bloody murder, but the NRA supported it.Likely, every recent mass murderer would have appeared on that DB, had it been created. It was in Texas and Texas currently has the highest rate of gun ownership and the lowest rate of murders in its history.In the US, there are allegedly 265MM guns but only 22% of citizens own guns. 12% of women own guns up from 9% in the last two years.I share this with you because the NRA may be a thought leader, a good messenger, but they are no political funding powerhouse.What they have done is tap into the sentiment of the American people and represent the majority view of all things related to guns and the Second Amendment.America is ripe for gun regulation, but not gun control or gun confiscation.It is perfectly fair to re-visit the Second Amendment and make sure the Constitution says what we want it to say. It is long overdue for the creation of a national DB of persons who should not be allowed to buy guns. The NRA is not the enemy.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

      1. Bridget Goodbody

        Exactly! No one knows that… and few believe they dont have lobbying power . And who knows about their connection to the Russians. Ripe for rebranding!

        1. SFG

          Yup, no doubt it’s the Russians.

      2. Salt Shaker

        JLM, from what I’ve read the NRA spent $30.3M on Trump’s campaign. What’s the source of your $1.1M figure for 2016? Seems rather low to be generating such support from the GOP, who, like most politicians, are beholden to lobbyists and special interest groups.

        1. JLM

          .I have always found Open Secrets to have the best data and they break it down amongst Contributions, Lobbying, and Outside Spending. It is the only place I have ever found that does a good job on Lobbying expenditures which have to be reported on a specific piece of legislation.This is where I looked and what I found:https://www.opensecrets.org…I have seen the $30.3MM reported before and think I know where it comes from (“affiliations” on campaign contribution reports), but I have never run it to ground.You have to understand that the NRA’s numbers are gone over with a fine tooth comb.The NRA is riding the wave of a powerful cause and that accounts for their power moreso than writing big checks. Gun control is also one of those issues which are embedded in the culture from a coastal and urban v rural perspective.Michael Bloomberg’s anti-gun PAC has more financial resources than the NRA, but the NRA has more pure influence even with only 5MM members.To put the NRA into context, the NEA contributed almost $30MM in 2016 and 2014. The SEIU contributed $39MM in 2016. This gives one an idea of how comparatively small the NRA’s pocketbook really is.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          1. Salt Shaker

            The NRA generates in excess of $300M in revenue annually. It seems illogical that their political contributions (individual and/or PAC) would only be slightly north of $1M, when they need to keep their foot on the gas in response to public outrage. The only way these politicians continue to be beholden to the NRA is via $$$. They’re not all staunch 2nd Amendmenters.

          2. JLM

            .Since 2013, the number is in excess of $350MM. It was a big spike, but it has continued.The NRA was for some time the primary advocacy group for the gun makers and sellers. They were instrumental in supporting the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act of 2005. This law essentially protects gun makers and sellers from any derivative liability from the lawful sale of a gun.The NRA Institute for Legislative Action is an issue oriented PAC which is sponsored by the NRA but must, by law, remain independent of the NRA (wink, wink).This is the kind of thing which the NRA spends their money on. It shows up in their lobbying expenditures and their legal fees.They issue an annual report card which has enormous impact on Congressional races.When studying the nature of the NRA’s individual donors, it is quite interesting to see that the average donor is giving $35. Why this is important is that a large number of small donors is indicative of a grassroots campaign. I suspect for each of those donors, there is a household which thinks similarly.In many ways they are, politically, like the military. An issue oriented cause which spends nothing on politics – not allowed to by law – but which figures prominently in the fortunes of electoral politics because of the power of their cause.There is a third rail quality to the discussion of gun control which is fatal. I am not aware of any politician who has ever WON an election when part of their core message is gun control. You?I think the NRA punches way above its weight class.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          3. Salt Shaker

            Avg donation is $35 cause that’s what the annual NRA membership costs. (I think it’s now $40, with better pricing on 5-yr membership, for example). No doubt the NRA is punching above its weight class cause politicians are fearful of the org’s power, perhaps in some cases unnecessarily so. Why rock the boat, unless one has to.

          4. JLM

            .Dues and donations are two different things. Here’s an article about their revenues post Sandy Hook.https://www.thetrace.org/20…JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

          5. Salt Shaker

            The NRA’s mission statement says its goal is to defend the Constitution and more specifically the 2nd A (a policy driven charter). All good, but the NRA also functions as a de facto marketing arm for gun and ammo manufacturers as its training, education, seminars and publications encourage usage that benefits private industry (economic driven), and has nothing to do with its stated mission statement. I wonder consequently why there hasn’t been a strong effort to go after the NRA’s tax exempt and non-profit status?

          6. JLM

            .Hahaha, that’s a good one. For all the reasons we’ve discussed, nobody has the cojones to take on the NRA’s tax exempt status.They are pretty damn shrewd about how they are organized:1. the NRA Civil Rights Defense Fund, 2. the NRA Foundation Inc.,3. the NRA Special Contribution Fund,4. the NRA Freedom Action Foundation,5. the NRA Institute for Legislative Action, and,6. the Political Victory Fund.They rely upon a number of different tax exemptions including c3 and c4.Every industry has its sacred cow which is tax exempt and is in support of that industry. I’d love to do away with all of them.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…

    1. Gotham Gal

      that’s good.