What will the Cannabis Industry look like in 10 years?
Spoiler alert…the cat is out the bag when it comes to cannabis. Some states have legalized it for recreational use, others for medical use, and the CBD craze is everywhere. 62% of Americans favor legalizing cannabis. On the other hand Cannabis is still listed as a Class 1 drug right next to Heroin. All of these factors weigh in on what this weed will look like in a decade.
There are a variety of large cannabis companies that are being traded on the Canadian stock exchange. Most of them backed into the stock exchange taking over shells and turning them into productive stocks. Many of these companies have built their own brands, their own brick and mortar operations, own several companies under one umbrella, are buying up smaller brands and are providing medical cannabis products.
So, what is the future? Eventually each state will either allow cannabis to be sold either in stores (like liquor stores) that have licenses to distribute recreational products. Each state might vary. They will grow at a rapid rate selling anything from flower to edibles. There are already many of these stores in states such as California and Colorado. Some of these stores are purely vertical brands such as Dosist and MadMen that sell only their own products and others that sell every product being made these days. It is like an overwhelming good liquor/wine store.
If the Federal Government reclassifies Cannabis as a Class 2 drug, then things will get really interesting. There are several Cannabis companies doing research and creating products that are thinking about the next generation of medical products. Drugs anywhere from treating epilepsy in children to anxiety to inflammatory. As a country we have not continued to do the research about the positive affects of CBD or THC like other countries such as Israel. The companies in the states who are working on this are collecting significant data with an eye towards taking market share of the big Pharma companies.
Pharma has created a fury that has made many consumers wary of taking their products. They are wondering if their doctors should really be prescribing those drugs. We can all search on Dr. Google and find out the ramifications of those drugs and are thinking about other options as health and wellness becomes a huge part of our every day conversations. After all, the biggest group of people purchasing cannabis products is not the millennials but the baby boomers.
No doubt that most of the new CBD consumer products companies are overvalued as much as the publicly traded companies in Canada that are trading 10x’s revenue. There will be a check in the market as there always is but for right now, the industry is a bit of a wild card. There are plenty of super smart people in it who are playing the long game. My guess is that those people are making a smart bet and the benefits for all of us are huge.
Most important is every person who has been incarcerated because of weed, should be released from jail, have their record wiped clean and given some type of aid or help to get a job…perhaps at a dispensary.
Dr Google! LOL ?
tons to reply here.so much opportunity, such a beautiful mess.having federal laws, not state by state would be so much easier for the entrepreneur.cbd is being commoditized even before it is vaguely understood.the most interesting piece of this is the positioning of the entire cbd/thc/turpine intersection as a wellness market.go to the the dispensary on rose which is basically a mashup of head shop and piercing pallor with an ATM in the middle. go to the Dosist brand store on abbot kinney and it is well, a wellness product shop feeling like a juice shop where you buy with a gift card.too cool. too much great medical innovation is coming from this.
Rose Dispensary is my favorite. 🙂
A great street.
M&A, and IPOs, and then hard political lobbying to legalise all drugs. Eventually Mexico becomes so powerful it builds a wall to keep US citizens out.
LOL. That’d be ironic
The vast majority of Cannabis in the legal markets are grown in greenhouses in the states it is consumed in.
If all drugs become legal then perhaps prices collapse and greenhouses become an unsustainable cost. Capital will flow to territories where production costs are lowest. That will be countries where the climate is ‘native’ to the crop and labour is cheap. I imagine the US government would impose high import tariffs to try to protect the home market, but that will encourage smuggling, and how then to differentiate expensive domestic product from cheap foreign product?
Don’t see it that way.This is not just about growing and smoking pot.Many states mandate that to sell you must grow there.AndThe real thing is innovation in strains, in extractions, in experimentation with THC/CBD/Turpin combinations.Cannabis legalization drive a whole slew of entrepreneurial and wellness based innovation in the health fields as well.With Liponomes and massive amount of scientific processes to combine, absorb, infuse.
Many states mandate that to sell you must grow there.How do people feel about that (users)? To me it makes a great deal of sense. Although it would result in higher prices it would mean that it is easier (big if) to insure the quality of the product. Also more money flows to the state in taxes and revenue. (Both because price is higher and there are more ways to tax it). Negotiation wise it’s a pound of flesh that made sense to go after.Opposite are the generic pharma products that are made in China. I buy a brand name of the single drug I need even though it’s 10 times as expensive as the generic. No way I am trusting some factory in China with no or limited oversight.  In the US I once visited a generic factory (to look at labeling and packaging equipment) and was able to freely walk around to various machines. And this was in North NJ. Not a great dog and pony show at all.
.Colorado/Washington States are awash with excess weed. You can buy it online for as little as $100/ounce. The most popular amount trading is half ounces. To put that in perspective an ounce back in the days when it was first legalized in Washington state was trading for $36/oz. Today that is $4.90/oz.It is difficult to get good numbers because there is brand differentiation and there is product differentiation. At the end of the day, good quality, smokable weed is a commodity with a price that is continuing to dip. It is, after all, a weed subject to very easy hydroponic cultivation and natural selection.it went from a single pound for a six month growing season to five pounds for a six week growing season with a huge spike in THC content.https://thefarmco.com/marij…The total revenue to Colorado last year amounted to less than 2% of their education budget. Financially the idea of a huge public purse bonanza is dead.The cartels are buying a lot of the excess as it is IN the country, cheaper than they can grow and transport it, and can be camouflaged as legal for part of the distribution journey.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
.By law, not by mistake. All state laws require home grown weed.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
No one said mistake.Not 100% true for products like Gnosis in LA that is classified as both recreational in Cal, and medicinal in non recreational states and can be bought in medicinal outlets in Florida.
.Every bit of marijuana in Florida is subject to the “seed to sale” certification requirements of their law — Ch 381.986, Fla Statutes, the Compassionate Medical Cannabis Act of 6-16-2014, revised 3-25-2016.Florida just lifted its ban on smokable medical weed. They will likely have a ballot initiative on the 2020 ballot for recreational weed.The Rep Gov of Fla — Ron DeSantis — was the driving force behind the lifting of the smokable medical week ban.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
62% of Americans favor legalizing cannabisOne of the purposes of government (or Parents for that matter) is to (in theory at least) protect people from their folly and when they are not smart enough to know what is the best decision (for society in general or for them in particular). Obviously there are many cases where government does not get it right no question about that. To that point what people (or kids) are in favor of is only one factor to consider in any decision by government (or parents). Remember when the speed limit was lowered to 55mph to save gas in the 70’s.
What’s your approach to studying new markets like this — is it reading something specific, or just a “connecting the dots” from meeting various founders, or something in between?
All of the above. Reading, meeting and connecting.
What are your main top 3 reading sources?
Oy. I read so much nonsense for your head I can’t even begin to recount
Patten a strain like bud wiezer did and Marlboro cigarette did. Wave of the future I don’t know why they are holding out put it in the store, tax it or take it off the market.
Did you see this?? Totally thought of you! Ha! https://www.vox.com/the-hig…
Bought it a few weeks ago. Lol