Data is the most essential information to make decisions and see through the weeds. The mixed messages we are getting from the WH, CDC, and everything in between is insanely frustrating.
So, I asked my doctor. They have not truly figured out the virus yet but here are some interesting stats she gave me.
How long should we be quarantined from other people? Can I go hang with people who have been in lock-down too? The average incubation period is 5.1 days. If you don’t have symptoms after 7 days it is probably ok to hang. If immunocompromised or older or underlying lung condition would quarantine longer than 7 days for sure. Keep in mind this is an evolving situation.
How about young people who just got back from college? If they have been quarantining themselves for at least 7-10 days then their exposures are limited and if no symptoms, probably in the clear.
What if someone is infected but asymptomatic? 7-10 days of quarantine after the last exposure should be fine if they are asymptomatic. If they are sick? 7 days after symptoms begin and/or 3 days after the fever is gone you are in the clear to go see them. Average incubation is 5 – 10 days, 10 being conservative.
If you travel, how long should you quarantine afterward? If you don’t have any symptoms after 7 days, you are probably ok.
At least some data we can wrap our heads around. We have who have seen nobody but themselves so at least sooner than later we can hang with each other.
The data I get and trust is from:Cuomo as that impacts my daily life the most.NPR, they have a new daily podcast on the virus.Some others, The Daily mostly. The NY Tech Newsletter (Fred shared it).My doctor is a friend and that helps.Seems btw the Cuomo is announcing Shelter in Place for the city today. I hope so.Stay healthy.
Cuomo has done a great job.
Cuomo for sure is in his glory no doubt about that. That guy was built for this type of event (I am not a Cuomo fan but then again I don’t live in NY either so what’s it to me)?You know what this event will do though? It will keep many of the people in politics (for the wrong reason) out of it.It’s my concept of what I call ‘wash the suds off’ people. People who want the fun part of something but not the hard work that goes with it. It (an event like this) thins the herd of those people.’Wash the suds off’ comes from when I waxed cars growing up to make money. You had to get the customer (cold call in nice neighborhoods), buy the supplies, wash the car, spend hours waxing and detailing. Entire day. But there were always these people who would come by (friends and neighbors) who wanted to use the hose to ‘wash the suds off’. That was the fun easy part. No you don’t get to do that without the harder parts.
Cuomo has done a great job. Worked well with Washington and Trump and is getting the resources and inventory in place to help if it gets out of control.
I think the issue with the analysis and summary of what your doctor is saying is the ‘probably’ part. You are talking about a small chance of a big thing happening. I don’t mean getting the virus I mean what could happen if you get the virus and need further care and the health system is overwhelmed. Small chance of a big thing. Not enough beds. Guess what they are going to pull people from ventilators. Know this for a fact first hand.Here is a way to illustrate. If you cross the street in an area with typical low traffic you should be ok even if you don’t look both ways. Of course you do look both ways and you do it each and every time because (to my point) ‘it’s a small chance of a big thing happening’. (Plus it needs to be a habit). So you are careful, right? You wear a seat belt but when was the last time that you got in a car crash where a seat belt mattered? Small chance of a big thing.You are also thinking that people who say they are quarantined are quarantined and you can trust them to that point. You don’t know what they might have picked up from the delivery person or a box delivered from Amazon. Small chance of a big thing. Trust? How many women do you know that trusted their husband would not cheat on them (or vice versa). You really don’t know what people are doing.Some other points. How far are you traveling to see these people? Are you walking a few doors over or are you driving? (Or maybe they are coming to you?) You realize of course that if you get in an accident while driving (‘small chance of a big thing’) the health care system is not really setup to handle things like they are on a normal day. And doctors are not making decisions like they should (they are freaked out to say the least).Lastly you should (in my opinion of course) forgo pleasure in this case for safety. No way you are going to tell me that having to socialize is in some way essential or needed and that it can’t wait. (Tough love going on here).
Agreed, and these similar questions are percolating in my mind. But even more than that, at the macro level, WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED FROM CHINA? WHAT KNOWLEDGE DID CHINA TRANSFER TO US? Since they have gone past the peak, and gone through it, I’d like to learn more about what really worked there and how people coped with it (although I realize the process methods are different for us here). Apple stores re-opened in China last week, factories are re-opening, no more new cases. All that within 1-2 months of peaking. So, are we heading along the same trajectory or not?
There are learnings for certain but I think Italy is/will be more analogous though we will considerable worse imo.We are closer in what we will do to control the populations to Italy obviously and that is a factor,And there is the lag.I believe (so take this as a discussion point nothing more and don’t want to argue):-China did nothing for 6-7 weeks then clamped it down.While I am please with the actions generally this week throughout January and February and half of this month our government here, the WH, was vociferously denying this existed and people listened so for what 2.5 months people were simply living life, spreading the disease, not saving money.So I’m optimistic though very worried.There are literally no tests in NY. You cannot get tested without the top two symptoms and an underlying issue or just returned from Italy so in actually we know nothing.Cuomo thinks that in worse case we nee over 40K ICUs, we have around 4 I believe.Hunkering down.To you and everyone in this community I wish you all good health and spirit. It has brought out the best in me.
.Maybe you live in a different world — frankly, I have often thought that — but when the Trump admin closed off China travel in late January, I got the message. That one stroke probably saved more lives than any action since.I don’t know the #s in NY, but they look like the biggest challenge in the US, but in Texas, you can drive up to a parking lot testing facility operated by Scott & White Hospital in N Austin, be quizzed on a computerized risk assessment form, and tested on the spot if the risk assessment says you need to be tested.Only 2-3% of persons who appear end up getting a test. Fewer than 6% of those tested turn out to be positive. I went to the site and verified this myself.I was at a party at which a woman at a table next to mine has turned out to have been infected, so I have necessarily been interested. Today, I have finished my 14 day quarantine.The NY Public Health Lab has only been processing 60 tests a day/night. The Mayor said it is going to increase to 100. Wow.Gov Cuomo finally got the private labs to get with the program. NY has a State Public Health Program which oversees state testing, just as does Texas. The CDC doesn’t run these operations.We are going to be fighting 50 different skirmishes. NY looks like it is the worst of the lot and they should get resources equal to the task. I think Gov Cuomo is doing a great job of communicating and leadership.I wish you well.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
yeah but there is no need to sugar coat it. the officials seem to be making it up as they go along.what is the learning from Italy? i’m not sure there is one. i hear 99% of the fatalities were in the older category and with pre-existing high blood pressure or diabetes.what is the learning from china? I’m still not sure. I read they have sent teams to Italy and some other places.
we agree.I listen to Cuomo and trust him on state stuff though wish he was more aggressive. NPR daily 15 minute podcast end of each day is a great diurnal snapshot from an org/people i’ve trusted my entire life and still do.be well.
.Milan has one of the largest Chinese communities as a result of the textile business. There was a natural gateway.Italy has an aging population which is a compliment — people like living there. Nobody retires to New York.What we have learned is that age and co-morbidity are important considerations. Ten percent of such persons will die if they contract the infection.This is not different than the seasonal flu.The most important co-morbidity characteristic is cardio-vascular disease followed by diabetes.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
.What we have learned from China is once again that they are a lying bunch of Communists who cannot be trusted.They pretend to be a civilized nation while they are a despotic regime who cannot be trusted to tell the truth to the world.The Chinese did a huge disservice to the world by refusing to come clean with the world as to the nature of their WutangCurse.Why?Because they wanted to pretend they were not a backward, 3rd world, despotic regime.They simply cannot be trusted. But, didn’t we know that? Didn’t Candidate Trump say the same thing?JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
It is certainly disappointing to say the least. I’m sure a lot of companies are re-considering their business relationships with China in light of this calamity.
.The US will never have a clearer understanding of our exposure to Chinese perfidy than what we have learned vis a vis pharmaceuticals in the WutangCurse episode.You know they have threatened to leave us in a “sea of corona virus” by refusing to send us medicines manufactured in China.https://nationalinterest.or…China is not our friend. We need to look at every element of our supply chain, assess its strategic importance, and move it back to the USA. This will happen. Trump will make it happenThe Chinese are also ready to test the world on the issue of the S China Sea and the dozen atolls they have fortified. They have begun to make noises about the US Navy transiting the area on its “freedom of navigation” cruises. It is ridiculous. They have no title to those atolls and they sit astride 40% of the world’s shipping lanes.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
I think we learned that if we want to contain this we have to use police force to keep people in their homes, and wrestle people into locked quarantine boxes. I’m only being half sarcastic. This might be what we need.
Meanwhile my mom (hilarious actually) 92 years old and lives in a place full of old people (nice place). Walks to the Whole Foods next door to pickup food no issue. Now they have the entire place on lockdown. Nobody in or out.She calls to tell me they can have food delivered no issue. But she is getting together with some girlfriends in one of the other apartments and having dinner together. No fear. And she is in the most vulnerable group.I say this to point out that my caution apparently did not come from her entirely.That said it is my caution why she is there in the first place. I made her move from her house several years ago where she wanted to stay after my Dad died. Now she is having the time of her life at this place every day (pre Corona) is a social event.
@LE I could have written what you wrote…my Mom is 93 living in a Sr.+ (which means at 62 I can live there!) …finally moved her there at age 90…she said to me yesterday that thankfully she is there because she has a walking group…and they do their swim aerobics together even if the instructor is not allowed to be there anymore etc…finally after 12 days of self “quarantine” I went and had lunch with her…she seemed as if nothing in the world was going on…other than her frustration with not be able to get MET OPERA live streaming…but happy to read the above as I was feeling a bit guilty having lunch with her…we did not kiss or hug hello or goodbye…and I wiped down everything…
Hmm. My brother and sister in law are both opera singers currently living in Israel (where he is studying to be a Cantor because to hard to get Opera roles). If they were more ‘hustlers’ I’d figure out a way to set them up remotely to give some concerts. (Off the wall idea and acoustically not great but biggest issue is ‘they are not hustlers they are artists’).The places like our parents are at are really great. And my Mom was not the type that would think she would like it either but she is having the time of her life it really surprises me.I can’t even imagine what is happening to older people who have a lesser environment let alone no support system.
.Data is often NOT the most essential information to make decisions.Case in point? Net NeutralityTwo years ago, we all had the same data, the same info — some dumbasses preached zealously that it was the end of the world. They were scornful with their condemnation of anybody who didn’t jump aboard the Net Neutrality bandwagon. There’s a website AVC.com in which this convo happened. It is apocryphal. They predicted there would be fast lanes, slow lanes, a cessation of competition, and dogs would sleep with cats.Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.In fact, two years later we find ourselves with Internet speed doubled and cost halved. No fast/slow lanes, no cessation of competition, no dogs sleeping with cats — WTF?The most essential element in making decisions is JUDGMENT.Data is good, but every single instance you indicate could be rightly, safely decided with a quarter thimble of data and an ounce of judgment.I find no conflict amongst the info coming from the White House (I particularly dig Dr Birx. I am a groupie.) and their question heavy pressers, the CDC, and data sights like:https://www.worldometers.in… <<< Look at the country by country data and graphs.https://topic.newsbreak.com… <<< Look at the county by county data. Very powerful.Small point — it is truly amazing to see the American manufacturing base rising to the challenge and revamping production lines to make critical equipment. It is WWII-like.If anybody gets stuck, ping me. I said two years ago that Net Neutrality was baloney. I have damn good judgment and wisdom.I earned it the old fashioned way.Wisdom is the application of good judgment over a protracted period of time.Good judgment is the product of experience.Experience is the product of some substantial bad decisions from which we learn.Bad decisions are the result of bad judgment.This is why life experience is so valuable.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
Respectfully I disagree with your conclusion that there have been* and thus never will be abuses due to the elimination of net neutrality. A thousand tiny (and not-so-tiny) encroaching decisions every year will add-up over time.* I can’t speak to the quality of the source of the abuses cited in this Jan 2019 article, but they strike me as worth considering.
.You do know, of course, that there were Congressional hearings on the subject and every one of those allegations — from the year ago article — was refuted by the companies accused.I can tell you from first hand experience that I am typing on a device that connects to the Internet at 1Gig up/down and costs me less than 50% of what it cost me 3 years ago plus I get wireless and wired phone service plus television with all the bells and whistles.I used to use the first company who brought 1Gig to Austin By God Texas, but changed to ATT to get the above bundle. So, I have firsthand experience with two of the almost 10 companies in ATX who provide that service. Ten companies!I know that ATX is a bit of a darling as it relates to all things tech, but I have had almost the same experience in Savannah and Steamboat Springs, Colo.No, Net Neutrality was a bonehead operation and those who preached the ashes of destruction upon us owe all of us an apology for their haughty arrogance and for being WRONG.Huge bonehead assertion.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
Thanks for taking time to read and reply.I’m glad you’ve had so many positive experiences, but that doesn’t eliminate the long-term concern.Net Neutrality’s stakes are absolutely enormous and I simply do not believe that no provider has or will ever treat one type of traffic on a network differently than other types of traffic, such as slowing or completely blocking competitors or those who don’t pay extra to stay in the fast lane.
.One of the powers of capitalism is the ability to freely pick with whom to do business. In a competitive environment, competition is also punishment for bad actors.The great thing about America is we don’t have to agree.I believe in the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus. I think Punxatawny Phil is a myth.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
Agreed on most, but there are many areas with a single provider of Web and mobile phone access, so there is no competition.Also, Hulu, for example, has no control over a user’s ISP, but may be (nearly) forced to pay to stay out of an ISP’s slow lane.Thanks again for your time and responses. I enjoyed the discussion. -M
‘hang in’?Boris Johnson has just announced the shuttering of the United Kingdom. Pubs, bars, restaurants, shops, night clubs, gyms, leisure centres, cinemas, theatres et.c. (schools, universities et.c.) all are to close from tonight indefinitely. Government will pay 80% of wage income to those now without work.
Hang with each other under the assumption that each one of those people haven’t left their houses or been with others for the entire time. A true lockdown. Here in Madrid for example, even if we are in lockdown, people shop each day for bread and fresh basics or walk their dogs, etc. So in my view, every day is like starting lockdown all over again. You can’t be careful enough. No hanging out ?
https://medium.com/six-four… good article.
just read an article about this and blogged about it here http://pointsandfigures.com… One issue is that data across countries is NOT standardized. For example, a death from COVID19 in Italy might not be the same as a death in the US. Data and definitions must be standardized across borders so that we can compare apples to apples. Makes reporting more objective and most importantly makes it easier for people to grab and understand information so we don’t panic and remain objective in making decisions.