Economy?
It is really hard to decipher how the economy is doing. Is it really doing good for everyone? Numbers are fungible so who is breaking down the different sectors to see how everyone is really doing?
Are we really creating jobs in the tech sector for high school students who choose not to go to college and can program? How about the Latinos and African-Americans? Are we doing the right thing for this growing population?
Are we creating growth and opportunities for companies in areas that are not the top urban centers? The homeless situation in LA and SF is so overwhelming (not sure what is being done if anything) that screams the economy is booming.
Are all the people who just got laid off at WeWork and GM and other companies that are downsizing get counted as having a job? Do people who are part of the gig economy get counted as employed?
I do believe that as a world we are in a much better place than 20 years ago although if you follow your Twitter feed from the media all day long, you might think otherwise.
As we move into 2020, are the candidates really thinking about the future or just lip service for right now?
I keep thinking about an event we went to almost 20 years ago where there were about 10 tech entrepreneurs around the table and 15 politicians. It was a big square table. The conversation was around what is needed for the future but the reality is the politicians didn’t really care about the future. What they cared about was staying in office and raising the funds to do so. Making decisions that would make them look great today not great in 20 years. The tech people were extremely forthcoming about that much to the politician’s dismay.
Time has passed and I think about some of those conversations and things that could have been implemented but weren’t from immigration reform and VISA’s for tech companies and education platforms. That seems to be how everything is working these days. Short term highs vs smart long term decisions.
Just look at the division around the impeachment. The economy might be doing well but the message from ignoring the truth is that we are telling our children it is ok to lie, cheat and devalue the office of the Presidency at all costs to stay in power.
Amazon not coming to Long Island City that would have created 25,000 jobs is a perfect example of not looking at the big picture. The economy today needs to be thought about for the economy tomorrow.
Comments (Archived):
.You’re kidding right? You can’t decipher how the economy is doing?Lowest unemployment in 50 years.Lowest black/ Hispanic unemployment ever.More Americans working than ever before.Inflation lower than 2% for years.Tons of capital available at affordable rates.Wage gains. Lower wage employees increasing at 2X the white collar rates.More job openings than unemployed.Regional economies that are on fire.Yes. Workers will have to go TO the jobs. Always been that way.This the best US economy since 1900.USMCA approved.Best. Economy. Ever.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
I was thinking about this yesterday. Everything we see around us is the past. Everything. So what is the future? Where can we see it?
We need new and better metrics to look at the economy.Trouting out old stats does not work any longer,
I also don’t know if I believe them.
there is no way you can trust anything this administration says.
.What a small, unhinged, inelegant comment.The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has a SINGLE — ONE — political employee in its entire realm.It has been around since 1884 and is governed by a series of councils:Data Users Advisory CommitteeBLS Technical Advisory CommitteeFederal Economic Statistics Advisory CommitteeBLS Labor Market Information Oversight CommitteeWorkforce Information Advisory CommitteeThese committees are manned by top notch professionals from the finest institutions of higher learning in the US, practicing economists, financial industry stalwarts, the financial media, public policymakers (both elected and appointed), academics, researchers, think tankers/research institutions, and business leaders.I was trying to think of a more apolitical organization or element within the US government and I have drawn a blank.The notion that this entity is somehow influenced by the political views of the Trump administration is absurd. You could not name the Commissioner of BLS if your life depended upon it, but you suggest he might have his thumb on the views of an organization that publishes more than 25,000 data heavy monthly reports?The Commissioner is William W Beach, most recently VP for Policy Research at George Mason University’s Meratus Center. He served as the Chief Economist for the Senate Budget Committee for 3 years and was a Founder/Director of the Heritage Foundation’s Center for Data Analysis. He was a senior economist for a telcom for a short period of time after having served as the President of George Mason’s Institute for Humane Studies. The IHS at George Mason solicited and received funds from the Koch Foundation, which supports more than a hundred university based research institutions across a wide spectrum. George Mason is not considered a particularly conservative or liberal school.He is a typical academic with short stints in government policy and industry with international exposure. He has a PhD from Buckingham University in England where he still teaches.I doubt there is a more apolitical person in government today.From a policy perspective, he would be fairly considered a man who has written in support of low taxes, streamlined regulation, and thinks along the lines of Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek (The Road to Serfdom author) which is to say he is a free market advocate and an opponent of socialism. Hayek won the Nobel Prize in 1974.During his confirmation hearings when pressed as to his governing philosophy, Beach blurted out that he considered himself a Republican, but had not voted for President Trump.He wrote a very controversial article back in the 1990s contending that the Social Security system cheats African-American men for a variety of reasons. His proposed solution was to allow for the direct investment of funds into financial markets.He is not an Ivy League hot shot and is from Kansas.He has quietly invigorated the BLS’ speaker outreach program to explain their role.He has never had anything to do with a FISA warrant.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
.Haha, some pinhead downvoted a comment about the BLS — that is more passion toward the BLS since 1884.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
.There is no reason to blindly “believe” any aspect of economic data. You can go to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and review their Handbook of Methods that lays out every stat, the manner in which it is derived.Economic statistics are not like polls. They are historic and they balance with independent corroborative statistics.The BLS, the Depts of Labor, Commerce, HHS, and the Federal Reserve are all independently looking at much of the same data and ensuring that their data is cross checked.There are 2,500 people in DC, 1,000 in 9 regional offices making this stuff work correctly.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
.You should take a look at the Bureau of Labor Statistics website and understand that there is not a single statistic that anybody could ever dream up that they don’t follow, spreadsheet, trend analyze, adjust for inflation, and chart.Founded in 1884 with 2,500 workers in DC, 1,000 workers in 9 regional offices, coordination with the Departments of Commerce, Labor, HHS, and the Federal Reserve, this is the premier business data entity on the entire planet powered by unlimited computing and storage support.The command of data — business data — the BLS has is in the IC (intelligence community) realm.We don’t use it as well as we could or should. We use simplistic measures like U-3 when there are almost a dozen more granular measures that would provide a more complete picture.JLMwww.themusingsofthebigredca…
Would love to know the identities of the 10 white tech bros (or am I wrong, were any of them anything other than that?). And further, how they prioritized the country’s future over their present/future. When I think of the top ten tech peoples (I’ll drop the tech bro nomenclature), I can’t imagine them prizing the country’s future over exit or shareholder value. Mark Pincus? Jack? Zuckerberg? Politicians by another name.