The Unbundling is Coming
There is a scene in the movie Sci-fi movie Frequency when Dennis Quaid, who has been to the future and back, tells his buddy to buy Yahoo. Of course, I got a good chuckle out of that.
So now, what would we tell people about where the future is going? Life is certainly changing, but the investment world is so flush with cash that valuations are still disconnected in reality. When will that market fix itself? It is bound to happen. At one point, revenues tell all when it comes to realistic valuations. I fear that many founders who got swept up in the overvaluation world will all get hosed. Unfortunately, that will eventually happen.
How about other heights in the market? Silicon Valley is clearly unbundling. It is costly to live there, the commute is messy, and now you can do your job without living there.
Last week Tom Dixon traveled to Stockholm city’s design week. He couldn’t be there, so he sent his hologram instead. Think about what they could mean.
This changes in-person communities. You can live in Seattle, be involved in a company that is in SF, so during the day; your community is work people. In-person you are living among many doing different work. It might actually force us all to step out of our social comfort zone and live the lives we want.
No doubt we peaked in commercial real estate and retail, but that has yet to happen in technology hubs. Covid has had some immediate effects, but there is a long-tail effect in some places like the start-up community where cash is flush.
At one point it, unclear when, it will all unbundle.